Eligible voters in this constituency are more likely to prefer a federal government headed by Pierre Poilievre.
Vancouver, BC [April 20, 2025] – With a week left in Canada’s federal election campaign, the Conservative Party is ahead in the Vancouver Island riding of North Island—Powell River, a new Research Co. poll has found.
In the mixed mode survey of a representative sample of eligible voters in this constituency, 45% of respondents say they will cast a ballot for Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn, while 23% would support Tanille Johnston of the New Democratic Party (NDP).
Jennifer Lash of the Liberal Party is third with 13%, followed by Jassica Wegg of the Green Party with 2%, Paul Macknight of the People’s Party also with 2% and independent candidate Glen Staples with 1%. About one-in-six eligible voters in North Island—Powell River (15%) are undecided.
More than two-in-five eligible voters in this riding (44%) say they would “definitely” (14%) or “probably” (30%) partake in strategic voting, while 45% say they would “probably not” (21%) or “definitely not” (24%) do so.
Just over half of eligible voters in North Island—Powell River (51%) approve of Rachel Blaney’s performance as their Member of Parliament, while two-in-five (40%) disapprove. Blaney, who has represented the riding since 2015, is not running for re-election this year.
The best ranked federal party leader in this constituency is Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party (53%), followed by Mark Carney of the Liberals (42%), Jagmeet Singh of the NDP (41%), Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault of the Greens (27%) and Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party (19%).
When eligible voters in North Island—Powell River are asked who they prefer to serve as Prime Minister of Canada after this year’s federal election, 43% choose Poilievre while 37% select Carney.
Poilievre is ahead among men (53%), eligible voters aged 35-to-54 (48%) and eligible voters aged 55 and over (49%), while Carney leads among eligible voters aged 18-to-34 (45%). The two contenders are statistically tied among women (Carney 35%, Poilievre 34%).
Methodology: Results are based on a mixed mode (telephone and online) survey conducted from April 17 to April 19, 2025, among 402 eligible federal voters in the North Island—Powell River federal constituency. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age and gender in the North Island—Powell River federal constituency. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
Find our data tables here and download the press release here.
Survey sponsor – The David Suzuki Institute
Organization that conducted the survey – Research Co.
Dates or period during which the survey was conducted – April 17 to April 19, 2025
Population from which the sample of respondents was drawn – Eligible voters who reside in the North Island—Powell River federal constituency
Number of people who were contacted to participate in the survey – 402
Margin of error for the data – +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
Address of the website on which a report by the survey’s sponsor is published – https://researchco.ca/2025/04/20/nipr/
For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca