Most voters knew who they were going to vote for before the official start of the campaign.
Vancouver, BC [October 21, 2024] – The 2024 British Columbia provincial election was close all the way. In the four surveys conducted by Research Co. in September and October—after BC United suspended its campaign—the totals for the three main parties, as well as the proportion of decided voters who were considering independents or other political organizations, fluctuated by three percentage points or less.
The province is now in a scenario similar to the one experienced in 2017. Nobody has enough seats to command the Legislative Assembly. The governing party is currently slightly ahead of the opposition challengers on both seats and vote totals.
Our “Exit Poll” helps explain the lack of movement in the final stages of the democratic process. More than half of voters in British Columbia (53%) told us they made up their minds on which party or candidate to vote for prior to the official start of the campaign on September 21. This includes majorities of those who supported the ruling BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (57%) and the upstart Conservative Party of BC (54%). Placing the spotlight on specific candidates for things they said or posted online in the final days of the campaign did not matter much.
On a regional basis, the two areas with the highest proportions of “late deciders” are the Fraser Valley (25%) and Metro Vancouver (23%). In stark contrast, almost two thirds of Northern BC voters (65%) were set on their choice before the campaign began, making things significantly more complicated for independent candidates.
Similar proportions of British Columbians made their choice in the first weeks of the campaign (19%) or after the televised debate (20%). A larger proportion of voters ultimately chose the BC Greens in the final stage (27%) than the BC NDP (21%) or the Conservatives (17%).
The key motivators for BC NDP voters were the party’s ideas and policies (48%), the party’s leader (24%), the party’s candidate in the riding (10%) and a desire for stability (also 10%). Supporters of the BC Conservatives were persuaded by the party’s ideas and policies (43%), a desire for change (22%), the party’s leader (21%) and the party’s candidate in the riding (10%).
This finding explains the current state of affairs. More than one-in-five Conservatives yearned for change, and just one-in-ten New Democrats voted for stability. On change as a fundamental motivator, the BC Conservatives are just between the Manitoba New Democrats in 2023 (33%) and the Alberta New Democrats in the same year (9%). One of these parties formed a majority government, and the other did not.
The province awaits in a polarized state. Voters are more likely to say they would welcome majority (52%) or minority (48%) governments headed by the BC NDP than majority (43%) or minority (34%) administrations headed by the BC Conservatives. They are also more likely to think the BC NDP ran a positive campaign (55%) than the BC Greens (51%) or the BC Conservatives (43%).
A different type of coalescing of the “free enterprise movement” would have had other ramifications. Only 30% of voters would have backed the Conservatives if Kevin Falcon had been their leader instead of John Rustad. The proportions are lower for Christy Clark (27%), the last leader of the BC Liberals who formed a government. Falcon receives a resounding “No” from voters aged 55 and over, with 54% “strongly disagreeing” that his leadership of the BC Conservatives would have enticed them.
As was the case in 2005, 2009 and 2017, two provincial parties in British Columbia each received more than 40 per cent of the vote. When we pose the scenario of future coalitions, the reaction is mixed. Only 35% of voters think the Conservative Party of BC and BC United should consider a formal merger into a single provincial political party, including 55% of those who cast a ballot for the BC Conservatives in this year’s election. Support is higher (44%) for a merger encompassing the BC NDP and the BC Green Party, an idea backed by 67% of New Democrats and 49% of Greens.
The 2017 election ultimately ended with the resignation of Premier Clark and the formation of a government headed by BC NDP leader John Horgan, with support from the BC Greens. At this point, British Columbians are ready to see what develops in the Legislative Assembly with two familiar faces. Similar minorities believe Eby and Rustad should resign as leaders (42% and 43% respectively) if they fail to form the government. Their bases, however, are staunchly behind them. Almost two thirds of NDP voters (65%) believe Eby should stay put, and a majority of BC Conservatives (53%) want Rustad to remain at the helm of his party.
Find our data tables here.
Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on October 19 and October 20, 2024, among 700 adults in British Columbia who voted in the 2024 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.
For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca