David Eby holds an eight-point advantage over John Rustad when voters ponder who would make the “Best Premier”.
Vancouver, BC [October 4, 2024] – No political party has managed to amass a significant advantage at the midway point of the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, a new Research Co. poll has found.
In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 45% of decided voters (+1 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in early September) say they would vote for the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their constituency, while 44% (+2) would cast a ballot for the Conservative Party of BC.
The BC Green Party is third with 9% (-1), while 2% of decided voters (-1) would vote for other parties or independent candidates.
The race has tightened across all regions, with the governing BC NDP leading the BC Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (49% to 44%) and Vancouver Island (42% to 37%). The opposition party is ahead of the governing party in the Fraser Valley (48% to 43%), Southern BC (47% to 42%) and Northern BC (47% to 36%).
As was the case last month, the BC NDP remains the most popular choice for women (50%) and decided voters aged 55 and over (52%). The BC Conservatives are ahead among men (49%) and voters aged 18-to-34 (47%).
“By a 2-to-1 margin, voters who supported the BC Liberals under Andrew Wilkinson in the 2020 provincial election are choosing the BC Conservatives (61%) over the BC NDP (32%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The retention rate for the BC New Democrats is 72%, while the BC Greens are holding on to 47% of their voters from the last provincial ballot.”
Two-in-five British Columbians (40%, -1) say housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue facing the province, followed by health care (19%, -2), the economy and jobs (18%, +4), crime and public safety (8%, +2) and the environment (4%, =).
There was little fluctuation in the approval ratings of the three party leaders. More than half of likely voters (52%, +1) are satisfied with the performance of Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby. The numbers are lower for BC Conservative leader John Rustad (45%, -3) and BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (42%, +1).
All three party leaders post negative momentum scores: -3 for Rustad (with 30% of likely voters saying their views on the BC Conservative leader have worsened since the start of the campaign) and -2 for both Furstenau and Eby.
Two-in-five likely voters (40%, +4) think Eby would make the Best Premier of British Columbia, with Rustad in second place with 32% (+5) and Furstenau at 12% (=). On this question, Eby reaches 43% in Metro Vancouver, while Rustad’s best showing is in Southern BC (37%).
On issue management, Rustad is ahead of Eby on being the best person to handle crime and public safety (38% to 32%), while Furstenau remains ahead on the environment (35%, with Eby at 27% and Rustad at 20%).
Eby maintains the upper hand over Rustad on health care (42% to 27%), the economy (40% to 33%), education (39% to 26%), housing, homelessness and poverty (38% to 31%), transportation projects (38% to 30%), accountability (37% to 31%), child care (36% to 24%) and seniors care (36% to 25%).
The two main leaders are practically even on three issues, where Eby edges Rustad by just three points: creating jobs (36% to 33%), energy (33% to 30%) and dealing with municipal governments (35% to 32%). Eby and Rustad are tied with 35% each on being the best person to manage the province’s finances.
The top four traits likely voters identify on Eby are being a good speaker and communicator (57%, -1 since September), having a vision for the future (51%, =), generally agreeing with people on issues (49%, +7) and understanding the problems of residents (48%, +1).
For Rustad, the top four traits are having a vision for the future (47%, -2), being a good speaker and communicator (46%, -1, being a strong and decisive leader (45%, +3) and understanding the problems of residents (44%, +1).
Furstenau’s top traits are being a good speaker and communicator (39%, +1), being honest and trustworthy (38%, -1), having a vision for the future (also 38%, =) and understanding the problems of residents (35%, -3).
Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from September 30 to October 2, 2024, among a representative sample of 801 likely voters in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
Find our data tables here and download the press release here.
For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca