CAQ Headed for Second Majority Mandate in Quebec

Vancouver, BC [October 2, 2022] – The governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) heads to tomorrow’s provincial election as the overwhelming favourite, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of likely voters in Quebec, 41% of decided voters will cast a ballot for the CAQ candidate in their constituency, up one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in mid-September.

The Liberal Party of Quebec and the Conservative Party of Quebec are tied for second place with 16% each (-1 and -2 respectively), followed by Québec solidaire with 14% (=) and the Parti Québécois (PQ) with 12% (+2).

More than three-in-five decided voters aged 55 and over (64%) say they will support the CAQ, along with 39% of those aged 35-to-54. Québec solidaire is the top choice for decided voters aged 18-to-34 (30%).

A majority of likely voters in Quebec (55%, -2) approve of François Legault’s performance as Premier and CAQ leader—a proportion that rises to 68% among those aged 55 and over.

Since mid-September, the approval rating improved for Québec solidaire co-spokesperson Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (42%, +5), PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (40%, +4) and Official Opposition and Liberal leader Dominique Anglade (39%, +6). The numbers are lower for Conservative leader Éric Duhaime (29%, -2).

On the “Best Premier” question, Legault maintains a sizeable lead (40%, -3), followed by Nadeau-Dubois (12%, +2), Duhaime (also 12%, -1), Anglade (10%, -1), and  Plamondon (8%, +2).

“More than seven-in-ten CAQ voters from the 2018 election (73%) think Legault would make the best premier out of the five main party leaders in Quebec ,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In stark contrast, only 30% of Liberal voters from the previous provincial ballot feel the same way about Anglade.”

The most important issue for likely voters in Quebec is health care (40%, -5), followed by the economy and jobs (17%, +1) and housing, homelessness and poverty (12%, unchanged).


Results are based on an online survey conducted from September 30 to October 2, 2022, among 708 likely voters in Quebec, including 637 decided voters in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the sample of likely voters and +/- 3.9 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.