Almost half of Ontarians think Doug Ford would be the “Best Premier” for Canada’s most populous province.
Vancouver, BC [February 14, 2025] – The governing Progressive Conservative Party holds a sizeable advantage over all other contenders in Ontario’s provincial election campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.
In the online survey of a representative sample of Ontarians, 45% of decided voters say they will cast a ballot for the Ontario PC candidate in their constituency in this month’s provincial ballot.
The Ontario Liberal Party is second with 31%, followed by the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) with 15% and the Ontario Green Party with 4%. An additional 4% of decided voters would support other parties or independent candidates.
The Progressive Conservatives are ahead across all areas of the province, with particularly high showings in the 905 Region (52%), Northern Ontario (51%) and the 416 Region (46%).
“At this point in the 2022 provincial campaign, the governing Progressive Conservatives were garnering the support of 34% of decided voters in Ontario,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Their lead in 2025 is markedly higher.”
More than half of Ontarians (56%) approve of the performance of Premier and Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader Doug Ford. The rating is lower for Ontario Liberal Party leader Bonnie Crombie (48%), Official Opposition and Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Marit Stiles (43%) and Ontario Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (40%).
More than one-in-four Ontarians (27%) say their opinion of Ford has improved since the start of the campaign. The numbers on this indicator are lower for Crombie (21%), Stiles (18%) and Schreiner (12%).
Almost half of Ontarians (46%) believe Ford would make the best premier of the province, followed by Crombie (22%), Stiles (11%) and Schreiner (5%).
Two issues are seen as the most important facing the province right now: the economy and jobs (28%) and housing, poverty and homelessness (also 28%). Fewer Ontarians are primarily concerned about health care (19%), government accountability (5%) or crime and public safety (also 5%).
Ford is seen as better suited to manage the economy and jobs (43%), energy and pipelines (also 43%), crime and public safety (42%), accountability (37%), housing, poverty and homelessness (34%), health care (32%), the environment (30%) and education (also 30%).
Crombie’s highest numbers are on health care (26%) and education (25%), while Stiles does best on housing, poverty and homelessness (18%).
More than two-in-five Ontarians (44%) believe the Ontario Liberals and the Ontario NDP should merge into a single political party, while just over a third (36%) disagree with this idea.
Half of residents of the 416 Region (50%) are in favour of a Liberal-NDP merger. The proportions are lower in the 905 Region (48%), Eastern Ontario (45%), Southwestern Ontario (38%) and Northern Ontario (35%).
Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from February 11 to February 13, 2025, among 702 Ontario adults, including 639 decided voters in the 2025 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.9 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.
Find our data tables here and download the press release here.
For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca