The approval rating for both Carla Beck and Scott Moe surpasses 50%, but Moe is ahead on the “Best Premier” question.
Vancouver, BC [October 11, 2024] – The governing Saskatchewan Party is ahead of the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) in the early stages of the provincial electoral campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.
In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 51% of decided voters would support the Saskatchewan Party’s candidate in their constituency, while 43% would vote for the New Democrats. The Green Party is third with 3%, while 2% of decided voters would back other parties or independents.
“The Saskatchewan Party has a 15-point advantage over the NDP among male decided voters (55% to 40%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The two parties are virtually tied among female decided voters (Sask. Party 48%, NDP 47%).”
On a regional basis, the race is very close in Saskatoon (NDP 47%, Sask. Party 46%). The governing party is ahead in Regina (51% to 45%) and in the rest of the province (61% to 35%).
Support for the Saskatchewan Party is highest among decided voters aged 55 and over (56%) and falls slightly among those aged 35-to-54 (52%) and those aged 18-to-34 (48%). Conversely. the New Democrats fare better with the youngest adults (46%) but drop among those aged 35-to-54 (43%) and those aged 55 and over (39%).
More than half of likely voters in the province approve of the performance of both Official Opposition and NDP leader Carla Beck (58%) and Premier and Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe (54%).
Fewer than two-in-five likely voters approve of five other leaders: Rose Marie Buscholl of the Progressive Conservative Party (35%), Naomi Hunter of the Greens (34%), Teunis Peters of the Saskatchewan Progress Party (33%), Jon Hromek of the Saskatchewan United Party (29%) and Phillip Zajac of the Buffalo Party (25%).
Beck posts an impressive momentum score of +14 (with 30% of likely voters in Saskatchewan saying their opinion of her has improved since the start of the campaign). Moe’s score on this question is even (24% of respondents say their views on him have improved, and 24% say they have worsened).
Moe holds the upper hand on Beck when decided voters are asked who would make the “Best Premier” of Saskatchewan (42% to 29%), with Hunter at 9%
Similar proportions of likely voters in Saskatchewan select two issues as the most important ones facing the province: health care (27%) and housing, poverty and homelessness (26%). Fewer respondents are primarily concerned about the economy and jobs (18%), crime and public safety (10%), education (5%), the environment (3%) and accountability (2%).
Moe leads Beck when respondents are asked about the person best suited to manage four issues: energy (40% to 30%), the economy and jobs (39% to 29%), crime and public safety (36% to 30%) and government accountability (36% to 30%).
Beck is ahead of Moe health care (38% to 32%) and education (37% to 29%). The two leaders are virtually tied on two other issues: housing, poverty and homelessness (Moe 36%, Beck 34%) and the environment (Beck 32%, Moe 30%).
Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 7 to October 9, 2024, among a representative sample of 500 likely voters in Saskatchewan, including 413 decided voters in the 2024 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Saskatchewan. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.4 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 4.8 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.
Find our data tables here and download the press release here.
For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca