Confidence in the leaders of the province’s separatist movement did not increase since August. 

Vancouver, BC [October 18, 2026] – About three-in-four voters in Alberta will cast a ballot for the province to remain in Canada in tomorrow’s referendum, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of likely voters in Alberta, 74% will support Alberta remaining a province in Canada, while fewer than one-in-four (22%) prefer to commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.

More than a third of Albertans who voted for the Conservative Party in the last federal election (35%) would cast a ballot seeking a binding referendum on independence. The proportions are decidedly lower among Albertans who backed the New Democratic Party (NDP) or the Liberal Party in last year’s election (18% and 5% respectively).

Across Alberta, only 23% of likely voters in the referendum (-3 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in August) would like to see Alberta become a country independent from Canada, while 13% (-3) support Alberta joining the United States.

“The notion of Alberta becoming an American state is more appealing for likely voters aged 18-to-34 (21%),” says Mario Canseco. President of Research Co. “Only 15% of those aged 35-to-54 and 6% of those aged 55 and over concur.”

Likely voters in Alberta were asked if they trust 15 different individuals on the issue of Alberta separating from Canada.

More than half of likely voters in Alberta say they “definitely” or “probably” trust current Canadian prime minister Mark Carney (54%, +3) and former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper (51%, =) on the issue of Alberta separating from Canada.

More than a third of likely voters also have confidence in current federal Official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre (44%, -3), current provincial Official Opposition leader Naheed Nenshi (43%, -3), former Alberta premier Rachel Notley (40%, =), current Alberta premier Danielle Smith (38%, +1) and former Alberta premier Jason Kenney (37%, +5).

Professional hockey player Connor McDavid continues to have a higher level of trust on this matter (29%, +3) than leader of the federal New Democratic Party (NDP) Avi Lewis (19%, -1), Progressive Tory Party of Alberta leader Peter Guthrie (15%, -2), Alberta Prosperity Project CEO Mitch Sylvestre (13%, =), Wildrose Loyalty Coalition leader Paul Hinman (12%, -1), Republican Party of Alberta leader Cameron Davies (also 12%, +2), Alberta Prosperity Project co-founder and lawyer Jeffrey Rath (also 12%, -1) and social media personality Marty Belanger (10%, -1).

The province-wide referendum scheduled for tomorrow also includes questions on immigration and constitutional issues.

Majorities of likely voters in Alberta say they will vote “Yes” on two of the five questions related to immigration:

• The Government of Alberta introducing a law requiring individuals to provide proof of citizenship, such as a passport, birth certificate or citizenship card, to vote in an Alberta provincial election (Yes 56%, No 33%).
• The Government of Alberta taking increased control over immigration for the purposes of decreasing immigration to more sustainable levels, prioritizing economic migration and giving Albertans first priority on new employment opportunities (Yes 56%, No 35%).

The three other questions related to immigration outline closer contests, with a significant proportion of likely voters who remain undecided or who would decline their ballot or leave their ballot blank:

• The Government of Alberta charging a reasonable fee or premium to individuals with a non-permanent immigration status living in Alberta for their and their family’s use of the health care and education systems, assuming that all Canadian citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for public health care and education as they do now (Yes 44%, No 39%, No stated choice 18%).
• The Government of Alberta introducing a law mandating that only Canadian citizens, permanent residents and individuals with an Alberta-approved immigration status will be eligible for provincially-funded programs, such as health care, education and other social services (Yes 43%, No 39%, No stated choice 18%)
• The Government of Alberta introducing a law requiring all individuals with a non-permanent legal immigration status to reside in Alberta for at least 12 months before qualifying for any provincially-funded social support programs, assuming that all Canadian citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for social support programs as they do now (Yes 42%, No 42%, No stated choice 16%).

Public support is also not particularly strong on the four constitutional questions:

• The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to have provincial governments, and not the federal government, select the justices appointed to provincial King’s Bench and Appeal courts (Yes 46%, No 36%, No stated choice 18%).
• The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to better protect provincial rights from federal interference by giving a province’s laws dealing with provincial or shared areas of constitutional jurisdiction priority over federal laws when the province’s laws and federal laws conflict (Yes 44%, No 39%, No stated choice 18%).
• The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to abolish the unelected federal Senate (Yes 43%, No 39%, No stated choice 18%).
• The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to allow provinces to opt out of federal programs that intrude on provincial jurisdiction such as health care, education and social services, without a province losing any of the associated federal funding for use in its social programs (Yes 42%, No 42%, No stated choice 16%).

As was the case in August, likely voters in Alberta believe the level of participation in the referendum must be high for the results to be regarded as a true representation of the wishes of the public.

More than half of likely voters in Alberta think a turnout that ranges from 51% to 60% of registered voters (57%, -1), from 61% to 70% of registered voters (71%, -4) or of more than 70% of registered voters (79%, -1) would suffice.

Conversely, most likely voters in Alberta say participation levels ranging from 41% to 50% of registered voters (56%, +1), from 31% to 40% of registered voters (68%, -1) or fewer than 30% of registered voters (72%, =) would not be enough.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 16 to October 18, 2026, among 811 likely voters in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.6 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca