Stewart Keeps Lead as Vancouver Mayoral Election Looms

More than half of voters are considering independent candidates for City Council.

Vancouver, BC [October 16, 2018] – Independent candidate Kennedy Stewart remains ahead as Vancouver’s mayoral campaign enters its final days, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver voters reproduced the ballot that will be used in the mayoral election, with the names of all 21 candidates listed in the order that was drawn last month.

In the survey, 36% of decided voters (+2 since early October) said they will vote for Stewart or have already voted for him in the advance polls.

Ken Sim of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) is second with 23% (+3), followed closely by independent candidate Shauna Sylvester with 19% (+3).

Support is currently lower for Hector Bremner of Yes Vancouver (6%, -4), Wai Young of Coalition Vancouver (6%, -1), Fred Harding of VANCOUVER 1st (2%, -2) and David Chen of ProVancouver (2%, -5).

One third of voters in the City of Vancouver (33%) are undecided, including 41% of those aged 18-to-34 and 43% of women.

“Many Vancouver voters are still making up their minds about the candidates and parties they will support on October 20,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “This group includes three-in-ten of those who voted for Kirk LaPointe in the last mayoral election, and more than a quarter of those who cast a ballot for Gregor Robertson.”

Sim and Stewart are virtually tied among male decided voters (32% and 31% respectively), while Stewart leads among female decided voters (42%, followed by Sylvester at 25%).

When it comes to the election for City Council, more than half of voters in Vancouver (53%) say they are “definitely” or “probably” considering voting for independent candidates.

The parties with the highest level of consideration for City Council from Vancouver voters are the Greens (47%), the NPA (35%), the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE) (34%), Vision Vancouver (29%) and OneCity (27%).

Consideration is currently lower for City Council candidates representing YES Vancouver (18%), VANCOUVER 1st (also 18%), Coalition Vancouver (also 18%) and ProVancouver (16%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 12 to October 14, 2018, among 401 voters in the City of Vancouver, including 265 decided voters in the 2018 mayoral election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 6.0 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Half of Vancouverites Ponder Independents in Council Election

Consideration for both Green Party and Non-Partisan Association (NPA) candidates increased by five points since September.

Vancouver, BC [October 11, 2018] – Voters in Vancouver continue to take a serious look at candidates from the Green Party and Independents as they contemplate their options in the election to City Council, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver residents, 51% (+5 since September) say they will “definitely” or “probably” consider supporting Green Party of Vancouver candidates in this month’s municipal ballot.

A similarly high proportion of Vancouverites (50%, +12) say they will “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for any of the 27 independent candidates that will be listed on the ballot.

“The electorate’s appetite for independent voices is high across all age groups in Vancouver,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “A majority of voters aged 55 and over (57%) are considering independent candidates for one of their 10 votes.”

When it comes to established political parties, 35% of Vancouverites (+5) say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for City Council candidates from the Non-Partisan Association (NPA), and 34% (+2) feel the same way about contenders from the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE).

The level of consideration is currently lower for candidates representing Vision Vancouver (27%, -3), Yes Vancouver (23%, -1), ProVancouver (22%, +13), Coalition Vancouver (22%, +9), One City (21%, +2) and Vancouver First (16%, +4).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 4 to October 7, 2018, among 402 adults in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

 

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Stewart Remains Ahead in Vancouver Mayoral Race

Support for the independent candidate is highest among women and voters aged 18-to-34.

Vancouver, BC [October 9, 2018] – Independent candidate Kennedy Stewart currently has a higher level of support than all other contenders in Vancouver’s mayoral race, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver residents, 34% of decided voters will cast a ballot for Stewart, while 20% would support Ken Sim of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA).

Independent candidate Shauna Sylvester is third with 16%, followed by Hector Bremner of Yes Vancouver with 10%, David Chen of ProVancouver and Wai Young of Coalition Vancouver each with 7%, and Fred Harding of Vancouver First with 4%.

More than a quarter of residents (26%) are undecided, down five points since a similar Research Co. survey completed last month. This group includes 31% of women and 24% of those who voted for Vision Vancouver’s Gregor Robertson in the 2014 mayoral election.

“Almost half of Vancouverites who supported Robertson in the last election are saying they would be voting for Stewart this year,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Conversely, Sim is holding on to two-in-five residents who voted for Kirk LaPointe in the 2014 election.”

Stewart holds a double-digit lead over Sim among women (41% to 16%) and is virtually tied with the NPA candidate among men (27% to 25%). The independent candidate is also the top choice for voters aged 18-to-34 (38%, followed by Sim at 19% and Bremner at 14%).

Residents were asked individually about which of the seven candidates would be a “good choice” for mayor in the city. The top ranked contenders are Stewart (35%), Sylvester (27%), Sim (20%) and Bremner (13%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 4 to October 7, 2018, among 402 adults in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Stewart Holds the Upper Hand in Vancouver Mayoral Race

Two thirds of residents say housing is the most important issue facing the city.

Vancouver, BC [September 19, 2018] – With just over a month to go before Vancouverites elect their new mayor, the absence of a contender from the governing Vision Vancouver party appears to have benefited independent candidate Kennedy Stewart, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver residents, 36% of decided voters say they will vote for Stewart in next month’s election, up 11 points since a Research Co. poll conducted in July.

Ken Sim of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) is in second place with 25% (-1), followed by independent candidate Shauna Sylvester with 17% (+6), Hector Bremner of Yes Vancouver with 7% (+2) and David Chen of ProVancouver with 4% (=).

Support is lower for Wai Young of Coalition Vancouver (3%, -5), Fred Harding of Vancouver First (also 3%) and Connie Fogal of Idea Vancouver (2%).

The level of undecided voters in the City of Vancouver stands at 31% this month.

The survey was conducted after the final list of mayoral candidates was released by the city on September 14. Vision Vancouver mayoral contender Ian Campbell—who had the support of 18% of decided voters in July—withdrew from the race on September 10.

Stewart holds a 23-point lead over Sim among female decided voters (44% to 21%), while Sim is slightly ahead of Stewart among male decided voters (32% to 29%).

“The departure of Ian Campbell from the mayoral race has definitely helped Stewart, who currently has the support of 45% of Vancouverites who voted for Gregor Robertson in the last mayoral election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Sim is connecting well with the NPA’s traditional base, and is holding on to 49% of the voters who supported Kirk LaPointe in 2014.”

Across the city, two thirds of residents (67%) believe housing is the most important issue facing Vancouver, followed by transportation (9%), poverty (also 9%) and economic development (5%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 15 to September 18, 2018, among 400 adults in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

 

 

Greens, Independents Surge in Vancouver Council Election

Almost half of residents would like to see several parties represented in City Council.

Vancouver, BC [September 11, 2018] – As Vancouverites consider their choices in the election to City Council, the parties that traditionally formed the government in the city are not particularly popular, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver residents, 46% say they will “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for Green Party of Vancouver candidates in next month’s election to City Council, while 39% will “definitely” or “probably” cast ballots for independent candidates.

About a third of Vancouverites (32%) would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for City Council candidates from the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE). The ranking is lower for Vision Vancouver (30%), the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) (also 30%), Yes Vancouver (24%), One City (19%), Coalition Vancouver (13%), Vancouver First (12%) and ProVancouver (9%).

“The Green Party is definitely outperforming all others in Vancouver when it comes to City Council,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “There is also a large component of the electorate that is currently looking into independent candidates as viable options.”

Almost half of Vancouverites (47%, -3 since April) would “definitely” or “probably” prefer to see several parties represented in City Council, while 38% (+3 since April) would prefer a single party having a majority.

The survey was conducted before Ian Campbell of Vision Vancouver announced he was dropping out of the mayoral race. Across the city, the best ranked candidate is independent Kennedy Stewart with a score of +13 (23% think he is a “good choice” for mayor, while 10% deem him a “bad choice”).

Only two other candidates currently hold a positive score: independent Shauna Sylvester at +11 (19% “good”, 8% “bad”) and Ken Sim of the NPA at +4 (18% “good”, 14% “bad”).

David Chen of ProVancouver is even (11% “good”, 11% “bad”). The remaining candidates post negative scores, including Wai Young of Coalition Vancouver (-16), Hector Bremner of Yes Vancouver (-2) and Fred Harding of Vancouver First (also -2).

Vancouverites were also asked how much confidence they have in each of the declared mayoral candidates to help make Vancouver housing more affordable. 

Stewart is also ahead, with 33% of residents expressing “complete confidence” or “some confidence” in his ability, followed by Bremner (26%), Sylvester (also 26%), Sim (24%), Harding (22%), Chen (21%) and Young (19%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 4 to September 7, 2018, among 400 adults in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca