Tight Senate Races Developing in Arizona and Florida

The gubernatorial contests in Ohio and Wisconsin are also very close in the final days of campaigning. 

Vancouver, BC [November 5, 2018] – Residents of two American states are headed to this year’s mid-term election with closely contested U.S. Senate races, according to a series of new polls conducted by Research Co. in five American states.

The surveys also show remarkably tight contests in three gubernatorial elections.

Arizona

In the race to take over the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Jeff Flake in Arizona, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Martha McSally are locked in an extremely close race (50% to 49% among decided voters)

Incumbent Republican Doug Ducey seems headed for re-election as the Governor of the Grand Canyon State, with a 14-point lead over Democratic rival David Garcia (57% to 41% among decided voters).

Florida

Democrat Bill Nelson’s quest for a fourth-term in the United States Senate could see the closest race of his career. Nelson holds a two-point edge over Republican Rick Scott (51% to 49%).

In the Sunshine State’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Andrew Gillum is also ahead of Republican Ron DeSantis by two points (50% to 48%).

New Mexico

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich is first in New Mexico (52% among decided voters), followed by Republican Mick Rich (36%) and Libertarian Gary Johnson (12%).

In the contest to replace New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez, Democratic candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham holds a 12-point advantage over Republican challenger Steve Pearce (56% to 44% among decided voters).

Ohio

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown has a sizeable lead over Republican challenger Jim Renacci in the Buckeye State (58% to 42% among decided voters).

The race for governor is extremely tight, with both Democrat Richard Cordray and Republican Mike DeWine supported by 49% of decided voters in Ohio.

Wisconsin

Incumbent U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin appears headed to a new term in office, with a 12-point advantage over Republican rival Leah Vukmir in the Badger State (56% to 44% among decided voters).

The election for Governor is very close, with Democratic challenger Tony Evers barely ahead of incumbent Republican Scott Walker (49% to 48% among decided voters).

Methodology:

Results are based on online studies conducted from November 1 to November 3, 2018, among representative samples of 450 voters in five American states: Arizona, Florida, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

Photo Credit: R.Hood Photography

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Democrats Heavily Favoured in Six U.S. Senate Races

Incumbents lead in California, Michigan, Minnesota, New York and Pennsylvania.

Vancouver, BC [November 4, 2018] – Several members of the United States Senate appear ready to return to Washington D.C. after this year’s mid-term election, according to a series of new polls conducted by Research Co. in five American states.

The surveys also show Democratic Party candidates edging out Republican challengers in five gubernatorial races.

California

As was the case in 2016, the race for the U.S. Senate in the Golden State features two Democratic contenders. Incumbent Dianne Feinstein (62%) is ahead of challenger Kevin de León (38%).

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gavin Newsom holds a 20-point lead over Republican rival John Cox among decided voters in California (60% to 40%).

Michigan

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow appears headed for a third term in office, with a 17-point lead over Republican John James (58% to 41%) in the Great Lakes State.

In the contest to replace Michigan Governor Rick Snyder, Democratic candidate Gretchen Whitmer is ahead of Republican Bill Schuette (52% to 47% among decided voters).

Minnesota

Incumbent U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar of the Democratic Party holds a comfortable lead over Republican Jim Newberger in the North Star State (60% to 38%).

In the special election to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated after the resignation of Al Franken, Democrat Tina Smith is ahead of Republican Karin Housley (55% to 43%).

Democratic candidate Tim Walz is in a good position to replace fellow party member Mark Dayton as Governor of Minnesota. Walz holds a seven-point lead over Republican Jeff Johnson (53% to 46%).

New York

Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand would earn a new term in the U.S. Senate representing the Empire State, with a sizeable advantage over Republican Chele Chiavacci Farley (66% to 34%).

Incumbent Governor Andrew Cuomo of the Democratic Party holds a 19-point lead over Republican contender Marc Molinaro (58% to 39%) in New York.

Pennsylvania

Democrat Bob Casey Jr. would win a third consecutive election to the U.S. Senate in the Keystone State. Casey holds a 17-point lead over Republican rival Lou Barletta (58% to 41%).

Incumbent Democratic Governor Tom Wolf is 15 points ahead of Republican challenger Scott Wagner (57% to 42%) in Pennsylvania.

Methodology:

Results are based on online studies conducted from November 1 to November 3, 2018, among representative samples of 450 voters in five American states: California, Michigan, Minnesota, New York and Pennsylvania. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

Photo Credit: R.Hood Photography

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca